Business Activity Index in January 2022
Comment of Director of NBK Department of Monetary Policy Zhandos Shaimardanov About Business Activity Index in January 2022
Results of received estimates reveal that business activity index in January declined and made 50.0 (50.6 in December 2021). This drop is attributed to a decreased indicator in construction down to 45.7 (51.3 in December 2021) as well as in the service sector down to 49.4 (50.4 in December 2021), which, in turn, is associated with a decline in new orders and employment levels. Along with that, indicator in the industry rose to 51.8 (50.7 in December 2021).
In terms of regions, January demonstrated an improvement in business activity in 7 regions, deterioration in 10 regions. The highest level of business activity was reported in Northern Kazakhstan Region (60.7) and Turkestan Region (54.4), the lowest level was identified in Kyzylorda Region (44.1), in Almaty City (44.7), Akmola Region (45.9). In Kyzylorda Region and Almaty City, business activity abated in all three sectors of the economy.
In January 2022, assessment of the current business conditions turned out to be negative: balance of responses between positive and negative assessments was (-)2.3.
Businesses highlighted a decrease in demand: balance of responses turned out to be negative for the first time since February 2021, amounting to (-)5.9. Assessment of access to communications also turned out to be negative for the first time since January 2021, amounting to (-)2.8. Improvement in assessment is indicated only for business protection issues, although in general the assessment remains negative ((-)2.3). In January 2022, negative assessments prevailed for all factors except an access to finance/credit.
Optimism of enterprises regarding future business conditions for the next 6 months slightly improved: assessment of future conditions was 17.9 (in December 2021 - 15.2). At the same time, assessment of current conditions declined to (-)2.3 (in December 2021 - (-)0.1).
As a result, composite business climate index for the economy slightly declined to 7.5 (7.7 in December 2021).
In January 2022, the survey covered 459 enterprises: 67 engaged in construction, 175 engaged in industry, 217 engaged in services.
