The Results of QIII 2021 Monitoring of Enterprises
Comment of Director of NBK Monetary Policy Department Zhandos Shaimardanov Concerning Results of QIII 2021 Monitoring of Enterprises
According to monitoring results, economic activity in the real sector continues its recovery process. Utilization of production capacities expanded, demand for finished products rose, turnover of assets and working capital accelerated, growth rate of prices for products, raw materials and materials remained unchanged.
Utilization of production capacities of enterprises went up, while its weighted average level was 53.9% (52.4% in the second quarter). Growth rates of production volumes slightly slowed down but diffusion index (hereinafter referred to as the ‘DI’) is still in a positive zone (53.4). Demand for finished products of enterprises is growing, the index inched up from 50.3 to 50.6. Demand indicator rose in the service sector to 49.8, and in the sector of goods production it made 51.3.
Growth rate of prices for products of enterprises in the economy as a whole remained at the same level, DI was 61.6. In the IV quarter 2021, enterprises expect a slowdown in growth of prices for finished products.
The situation with lending has slightly improved. In the third quarter, 17.9% (17.5% in the second quarter) of the surveyed enterprises requested a bank loan, 96.6% (95.4% in the second quarter) of them raised it. The bulk of enterprises (85.1%) received loans to finance working capital (procurement of materials, raw materials, semi-finished products, etc.).
As before, enterprises consider economic climate of Kazakhstan as a main obstacle in doing business. 34.9% of the covered enterprises highlighted this. Other obstacles include competition (29.3%); tax level (24.0%); demand for products (22.5%); lack of qualified personnel (19.2%). Access to financing ranks number 9 in significance (11.0%).
In the third quarter 2021, a one-time question was added to questionnaires about impact of the pandemic on activities of enterprises. As a result, 66.1% of businesses said that the COVID-19 pandemic and restrictive measures related to its spread negatively affected their operations, with 12.9% of businesses being severely affected. Whereas 32.0% of respondents noted that the pandemic did not affect their activities.
Dynamics of composite leading indicator (CLI), which is an aggregated assessment of surveys of enterprises in the real sector, demonstrates a continued recovery in economic activity in the real sector, the CLI rose to 100.2. In the fourth quarter 2021, the trend of economic activity is expected to continue (CLI was also expected to be 100.2).
In the third quarter 2021, the survey covered 3,326 enterprises, 1,585 of which are large and medium-sized.
