Comment of Director of the Monetary Policy Department of the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan Zhandos Shaimardanov Concerning Business Activity Index in September 2021

Results of received estimates demonstrate that business activity index in September declined and moved to a negative area making 49.8 (from 50.2 in August).

The index was affected by contraction of parameters in construction to 49.3 (51.9 in August) and services - to 49.1 (50.7 in August). Deterioration of the indicator in the construction sector is related with a decrease in business activity and employment, and in the service sector - new orders and employment level as well as increased delivery periods.

However, the indicator in the industry rose to 50.9 (49.1 in August) due to an increase in new orders, employment level and new products.

In terms of regions, in September business activity improved in 10 regions and deteriorated in 7. The highest level of business activity is reported in Turkestan Region (54.9) and East Kazakhstan Region (53.8), the lowest is in Kyzylorda Region (40.2).

In September 2021, respondents highlighted worsening business environment in the country. Balance of answers about assessment of the current business conditions was negative making (-)1.0 (+1.7 in August). Enterprises in all the sectors positively evaluated demand for products/services, access to communications and finance/loans. Meanwhile, issues of tax burden and business protection received negative assessments like a month before.

Optimism of enterprises regarding the future business conditions for the next 6 months worsened: assessment of future conditions was 13.5 (17.6 in August). As a result, business climate index for the economy fell down to 6.1 (from 9.5 in August).

In September 2021, the survey covered 462 enterprises: 67 in construction, 175 in industry, and 220 in service sector.

For more details please visit: https://nationalbank.kz/en/page/indeks-delovoy-aktivnosti-po-kazahstanu-ida