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In August 2022, the National Bank started publishing a macroeconomic survey.

The macroeconomic survey is aimed at improving the communication of the National Bank with professional market participants. Building a dialogue with the expert community is designed to reduce the information asymmetry between the regulator and the market.

The survey involves the organizations engaged in the analysis and forecasting of macroeconomic indicators for Kazakhstan. The respondents included professional market participants, research institutes, international organizations, as well as rating agencies. The list may be expanded in the future.

The macroeconomic survey does not contain forecasts of the National Bank. It is a review of independent opinion, estimates and expectations of professional market participants on the development of the situation in the domestic and global markets.

The survey is to be conducted regularly at least 4 times a year before decisions on the base rate.

Survey results: February 2024
(in brackets are the results of the survey in January 2024)

Brent oil price
USD per barrel

average for the year

82.2

80.5

(80.0)

80.0

(80.0)

80.0

 (80.0)

GDP
%, YoY

5.1*

4.5

(4.5)

5.0

(5.0)

4.5

 (4.2)

CPI
%, December to December

of the previous year

9.8

8.5

(7.5)

6.5

(6.9)

5.7

 (5.8)

Base rate
% per annum

average for the year

16.5

13.8

(13.5)

10.5

(10.0)

9.0

 (9.0)

Exports of goods and services
billions of USD per year

89.7*

89.8

(86.5)

86.0

(83.6)

90.6

 (85.4)

Imports of goods and services
billions of USD per year

72.8*

72.8

(69.1)

73.0

(67.7)

74.0

(69.0) 

USD/KZT exchange rate
average for the year

456.3

471.8

(475.7)

491.3

(490.0)

506.9

 (500.0)

Indicator

2023
(fact/
estimate)

2024

2025

2026

Neutral base rate**
% per annum

8.0

(8.0)

Long-term GDP growth***
%, YoY

4.0

(4.0)

*GDP - preliminary data of BNS ASPR RK for 2023, exports/ imports - preliminary data of NBRK for 2023
**Base rate level at which monetary policy keeps inflation and inflation expectations on target over the long term and also GDP at its potential 

** Expected average growth rates of potential GDP over a 5-year horizon

In regard to the macroeconomic survey, please contact macroforecast@nationalbank.kz.

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