International Rating Agency Fitch Ratings (Agency) affirmed Kazakhstan's sovereign credit rating at 'BBB' with a Stable Outlook. Kazakhstan's credit rating reflects the country's substantial international reserves and low government debt. 

According to Agency estimates, gross international reserves, including gold, reached US$65.4 billion by the end of 2025 and further increased to US$67.6 billion by May 2026. By end-May 2026, the foreign currency assets of the National Fund stood at US$66.4 billion (18% of GDP), representing an increase of US$6.8 billion compared to the previous year.

According to the agency's analysts, GDP growth of Kazakhstan is projected at 4% per year in 2026–2028 (compared to 6.5% in 2025) as oil production levels stabilize. Economic activity will be supported by the non-oil sectors: transport, manufacturing, the services sector, and state-led investment.

The agency also notes that inflationary pressures will persist, partly driven by the Government's quasi-fiscal operations and high food prices. At the same time, Fitch Ratings forecasts a gradual decline of inflation over 2026–2027. 

The agency highlights that an upgrade of Kazakhstan's sovereign rating is contingent on continued strengthening of macroeconomic stability and the consistent implementation of a prudent fiscal policy. Fitch analysts note the economy's commodity dependence, and the need to strengthen the institutional capacity.

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