Comment by Director of NBK Monetary Policy Department Rustem Orazalin about Business Activity in February 2025

About dynamics of the BAI indicator

In February 2025, business activity improved and made 51.3. Increase in the business activity was reported in manufacture and services sector, where the index moved from negative to positive area, amounting to 54.0 and 50.6 respectively (49.9 and 49.7 respectively in January). In trade, business activity stayed put (51.6), and in construction, a slowdown to 50.3 is reported (from 51.0 in January). Thus, deterioration in business activity was recorded only in the mining industry, where the indicator remained in the decline zone and made 48.5 (49.8 in January).

The indicator in manufacture rose due to a noticeable increase in volume of new orders, new products and employment level.

About dynamics of the business climate index

Business climate index (BCI) in February 2025 fell down to 9.4 (from 12.8 in January) but remained positive, despite a decrease in assessment of current and future business conditions. The "business cycle clock" indicator remained in the growth area.

As enterprises say, an increase in the growth rate of demand in the economy was noted, while a slowdown continued in construction. The largest growth was reported in manufacture. Respondents slightly positively noted the change in infrastructure, while other factors (business protection issues, tax burden, and access to finance/credit) were assessed negatively, especially the assessment of the tax burden and business protection issues worsened.

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