The comment of the Director of the Balance of Payments Department of the NBK Azat Uskenbayev about the Current Account of the Balance of Payments

The National Bank has prepared a preliminary assessment of the balance of payments of the Republic of Kazakhstan.

According to preliminary estimates, the current account for the 9 months of 2021 formed with a deficit of (-)3.0 billion USD. Decrease in the current account deficit by 40.9% compared to the same period of the last year was due to an improvement in the trade balance. The trade balance surplus amounted to 15.1 billion USD, a 76.8% increase over the same period of the last year. This improvement is explained by significant increase in exports with an increase in import flows.

Export of goods rose by 20.4% to 43.1 billion USD. The increase was primarily due to the recovery of global oil prices. Export of oil and gas condensate expanded by 19% or by 3.6 billion USD, despite a 9.2% decline in quantities supplied. However, it should be noted that the continuing growth of oil prices in Q3 will be fully reflected only in Q4.

Ferrous and non-ferrous metals also played an important role in the export growth, which together expanded by 2.4 billion USD compared to the same period of the last year.

Along with that, the growth of import of goods was less pronounced, amounting to 2.7% and reaching 28.0 billion USD. While investment and intermediate goods were the main drivers of imports in the pre-pandemic period, they declined by 4.9% in the first 9 months of 2021 compared to the same period of the last year.

The increase in imports was mainly driven by imports of consumer goods, which grew by 21.4% or 1.5 billion USD in the 9 months of 2021. Non-food consumer goods continue to account for the largest part of consumer imports, growing by 25.9% or 1.3 billion USD, mainly driven by such goods as automobiles, telephones, drugs and clothing.

Income of foreign investors grew by 53.7% and amounted to 15.7 billion USD. This was due to an increase in dividend payments by 53.2% and reinvested profit by more than 2 times, which is explained by rising commodity prices.

It is worth noting that preliminary results for 9 months of 2021 are in line with the NBK expectations.