Denis Chernyavsky, Deputy Director of Monetary Policy Department of the National Bank of Kazakhstan Commented on the Inflationary Expectations of the Population in December, 2020

According to the results of the December survey, the inflationary expectations of the population have somewhat decreased. The quantitative estimate of the inflationary expectations for the year ahead amounted to 7.6% in December 2020. In comparison, the expectations were 7.8% in November 2020.

The share of respondents who expect the current rate of price growth or even faster price growth over the next 12 months has decreased to 50% (compared with 52% in November 2020). The level of uncertainty remains high for the third month in a row: 29% of the respondents found it difficult to estimate their expectations, compared with 31% of those surveyed in November.

Meanwhile, estimating the prices’ growth over the past month, the share of respondents who indicated the rapid growth of food prices remains high. In particular, the growth is noted in vegetable oil, bakery products and cereal. In fact, 88% of respondents noted growth in December 2020 compared with 85% of those surveyed in November, 2020.

The trend of improvement in the consumer sentiment continues due to an increase in the positive assessments of the current financial situation and more positive expectations for the economic development. The willingness for making bigger purchases increased slightly in December. However, the number of purchases made over the past three months has decreased.