Comment by Director of NBK Monetary Policy Department Rustem Orazalin about Business Activity in January 2025

In January 2025, business activity slowed down but the indicator remains in the positive area since February last year and it made 50.2.

The index declined due to a slowdown in business activity in manufacturing and services down to 49.9 and 49.7, respectively (from 50.4 and 50.2 in December 2024), where the index moved into the negative zone. The index demonstrated positive dynamics only in trade and construction, making 51.6 and 51.2, respectively (in December 2024 – 52.1 and 53.9, respectively). In the mining industry, despite a slight increase up to 49.9 (from 48.3), the index remains in the negative zone.

The Business Climate Index (BCI) demonstrated an improvement in January 2025. Assessments of both current and future business conditions are limited. As a result, the business climate index rose and made 12.8. The "business cycle clock" indicator continues to stay in the growth area.

As enterprises say, demand for their products/services increases. Despite the slowdown in growth rates, the highest demand was reported in construction. Demand in the economy as a whole demonstrates growth, but in terms of industries, a multidirectional change was hihglighted. Respondents praised a change in infrastructure, however, other factors (business protection, tax burden, access to finance/credit) were rated negatively, especially rating of the tax burden worsened.

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