Following October 15 trading, market exchange rate of KZT made 425.78 KZT/ USD, having lost 0.2% of its value for a week (from 424.81). Currencies of emerging markets demonstrated versatile dynamics. Release of an ambiguous September report on US labor market (poor growth of jobs by 194 k and strong decline of unemployment down to 4.8%) had weak influence on expectations of investors concerning curtailment of the asset purchase program by the year end. Minutes of USD Fed’s meeting also confirmed readiness to start curtailment of the quality softening program in mid November or December 2021, which investors perceived as a positive factor that signals progress and recovering economy. Consumer prices in the US rose by 5.4% y-o-y. US retail sales inched up 0.7% m-o-m in September having exceeded expectations of analysts.

Exchange rates for currencies of emerging markets[1] demonstrated the following dynamics against the USD:

• South African rand gained 2.2 % (from 14.93 to 14.6) after the US Fed released minutes of its recent meeting and after uncertainty regarding curtailment of the asset purchase program dwindled;
• Mexican peso appreciated by 1.8% (from 20.7 to 20.33) amid global USD devaluation and falling yield on treasury bonds;
• Russian ruble gained 1.1% (from 71.75 to 70.95) against the background of growing oil prices which exceeded USD 85/ barrel in connection with a persisting deficit on the global hydrocarbons market;
• Indonesian rupee gained 1% (from 14 223 to 14 075) in conditions of an improving risk sentiment of investors following data about growing retail sales in the US and an announcement that Bali would be open for international tourists when Covid-19 situation becomes stable;
• Brazilian real enhanced by 0.9% (from 5.51 to 5.46) amid signals of the central bank to support the national currency – the regulator announced currency swaps for USD 3 billion;
• Indian rupee depreciated by 0.4% (from 74.99 to 75.26) against the background of oil prices reaching 7 year high;
• Turkish lira lost 3.2% (from 8.97 to 9.26) after the President dismissed 3 members of a committee in the central bank who disagree with an urge of the head of state to further cut interest rate.

[1] most USD-traded currencies of emerging countries

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