On May 3, 2024, the Scientific and Practical Conference-Seminar of the National Bank “Challenges and Prospects for Economic Development” was held in Almaty.
The Conference was attended by representatives of the National Bank, the academic community, research centers, financial and international organizations, as well as independent experts in the field of economics and finance.
Works in the field of macroeconomic policy and macroeconomic coordination were presented covering, in particular, the issues of the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies, the role of macroeconomic coordination in maintaining a healthy labor market and managing inflation.
Participants also discussed the challenges and opportunities for ensuring development of the financial market. The researchers presented the results of their work on the activities of financial market participants, their social and environmental responsibility, the issues of undervaluation in initial public offering, as well as combating financial fraud. Issues of financial stability were also covered, with an emphasis on the effectiveness of macroprudential policies, as well as household resilience to shocks.
The event program was formed based on the relevance of issues of macroeconomic policy and financial stability and was divided into two panels.
PANEL I. Macroeconomic policy efficiency and macroeconomic coordination: the basis of economic stability
• Financial stability considerations in the conduct of monetary policy
Josef Ruzicka, Nazarbayev University
• Uncertainty shocks in an oil-exporting economy
Nurdaulet Abilov, The Caucasus, Central Asia, and Mongolia Regional Capacity Development Center (CCAMTAC, IMF)
• Fiscal multipliers in Kazakhstan
Ayakoz Khanet, Aigerim Rysbayeva, Research and Analysis Department of the NBK
• The effect of wage rigidity on the monetary policy transmission mechanism
Zarina Adilkhanova, Monetary Policy Department of the NBK
• Peculiarities of the relationship between the labor market and inflation processes in the economy of Kazakhstan for the period 2001-2021: theory and practice of implementation
Bolat Tatibekov, Ainur Abdrazakova, SDU
PANEL II. Financial market: challenges and opportunities for ensuring qualitative economic growth
• Policy support in promoting green bonds in Asia: empirical evidence
Dina Azhgaliyeva, Asian Development Bank Institute
• The underpricing phenomenon in initial public offerings
Magomet Yandiev, Lomonosov Moscow State University
• Anti-financial fraud, in particular pyramid schemes, Internet and telephone fraud
Mariya Yesseleva-Pionka, SDU
• Stress testing the household sector in Kazakhstan
Alisher Aldashev, Birzhan Batkeyev, Kazakh-British Technical University
• Macro-effects of macroprudential policy: economic modeling of CCyB in Kazakhstan
Zhandos Ybrayev, Financial Stability and Research Department of the NBK
On April 25, 2023, the III International Scientific and Practical Conference of the National Bank “Strategic issues of monetary policy. Challenges of the new economic reality” was held in Almaty.
The Conference was attended by independent experts in the field of economics and finance, as well as representatives of the National Bank, the academic community, research centers, financial and international organizations and government institutions.
During the event, analysts of the National Bank and the academic community presented to the conference participants the results of research on the setting and achievement of inflation targets, data on the dynamics of consumer prices over the medium term. Independent experts also shared their views on determining the optimal inflation target and monetary policy measures to stabilize it.
During the conference, the participants also discussed the long-term strategy of monetary policy, global trends and their impact on inflationary processes in Kazakhstan, factors of internal inflation, the interaction of monetary, fiscal and macroprudential policies in Kazakhstan.
Following the results of the Conference, the National Bank published a special issue of the publication “Economic Review”, which included the research presented at the Conference.
Session I. Long-Term Monetary Policy Strategy: Quantitative Formulation of the Target to Ensure the Price Stability
• Setting and Achieving Inflation Targets. Choosing Optimal Characteristics of the Inflation Target in Kazakhstan
Mukanov N.S., Almagambetov К.А., Jarzhanov М.U., Iliyassov А.B.
• Inflation Targeting, Monetary Policy and the Transition Back to Target in Kazakhstan
De Groot О., Konnings J.
• Central Bank Independence and Achieving the Inflation Target
Mukhamediyev B.М., Khitakhunov А.А., Temerbulatova Zh.S.
Session II. Macroeconomic Coordination
• Fiscal Rules in a DSGE model for Kazakhstan
Abilov N., Aviomoh H., Rahardja S.
• The Impact of the Government Expenditures on the Current Account of the Balance of Payments of Kazakhstan through the Channel of Import of Goods
Turabay B.A., Uskenbayev А.B., Muratov Zh.S., Almagambetova M.Kh., Ospanov N.К.
• Interrelation between Macroprudential and Monetary Policies: Goals, Instruments, Effects
Ybrayev Zh.Zh.
Session III. The Nature and Factors of Internal Inflation in the Republic of Kazakhstan
• Internal Factors of Inflationary Processes in the Republic of Kazakhstan
Bayeva Yu.V., Pak Е.А., Ageyeva V.S.
• A Study of Inflation Persistence in Kazakhstan: What Has Changed?
Tolepbergen A.
• Assessing the Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in Kazakhstan
Kulkayeva А.М., Seidakhmetov А.N.
• Various Core Inflation Estimates for Kazakhstan
Orlov К.V., Seidakhmetov А.N.
Economic Review of the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan: Special Edition, 2023
On September 27, 2019, the II Scientific and Practical conference of the National Bank on macroeconomic modeling was held in Almaty.
The event was attended by economists of the central banks of Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus and experts of applied research institutes.
The main objectives were to familiarize the expert community with modeling techniques, as well as applied research in the field of macroeconomics, monetary policy and financial sector development.
The National Bank published a special issue of the publication “Economic Review”, which included the following research papers presented at the Conference.
• Use of a quarterly projections model and satellite models in the NBRK analysis and forecasting system
Zhuzbaev A.M., Orlov K.V., Monetary Policy Department of the NBK
• Inflation and economic growth: in search of balance
Samat M.N., Mekebayeva K.B., Monetary Policy Department of the NBK
• Assessment of the impact of external shocks on the economies of the EAEU member states
Kuznetsov A., Kharitonchik A., Berdigulova A., Fedorov K., Eurasian Development Bank
• Optimization of monetary policy based on the DSGE model of the economy of Kazakhstan
Schultz D.N., Russian Academy of Foreign Trade, Kysykov A.B., Center for Applied Research “Talap”
• Estimating the equilibrium exchange rate: a simple approach to a difficult question
Mironchik N.L., Research Department of the National Bank of Belarus
• Analysis of the Kazakhstan labor market based on microdata
Bauyrzhan A., Center for Applied Economics
• Trends and medium-term prospects for the development of human capital in the labor market
Adambekova A.A., Eshpanova D.D., NARXOZ University
On September 12, 2017, the First Scientific and Practical Conference “Macroeconomic modeling: the modeling system of the National Bank and research work in Kazakhstan” was held in Almaty.
Representatives of the National Bank and the scientific and expert community discussed and shared their experience in modeling macroeconomic processes in the economy.
The conference was devoted to the demonstration of the model apparatus used by the National Bank and the presentation of scientific papers in the field of macroeconomics conducted by the scientific community of Kazakhstan.
The discussions allowed to look from different points of view at important issues of understanding economic relationships in modern realities and the effectiveness of public policy in achieving medium- and long-term goals.
The conference was attended by speakers of leading scientific, research and educational organizations of Kazakhstan, including the Institute of Economic Research, the Center for Applied Economics, Nazarbayev University, K. Satbayev Kazakh National Research Technical University, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, KIMEP University, Kazakhstan branch of Lomonosov Moscow State University.
Session 1 “Economic techniques of modeling and forecasting of economic processes”
• “Inflation modeling, empirical estimates”
Tuleuov O.A., Research and Statistics Department of the NBK
• “Modeling of GDP by production method”
K.B. Mekenbayeva, Research and Statistics Department of the NBK
• “Modeling of GDP by end-use method”
Zhuzbayev A.M., Research and Statistics Department of the NBK
• “Short-term forecasts of macroeconomic indicators”
Aigazin Zh., Center for Applied Economics
Session 2 “Structural model of Kazakhstan’s economy”
• “Quarterly Projection Model of Kazakhstan”
Chernyavsky D.O., Mukanov N.S., Research and Statistics Department of the NBK
• “Medium-term quarterly model of macroeconomic forecasting of Kazakhstan’s development”
Shuneev Sh.Zh., Center for Research and Forecasting of the Institute of Economic Research
Session 3: “Applied macroeconomic research in the field of monetary policy”
• “Development of recommendations on macroprudential, monetary and fiscal policy based on a multi-country DSGE model”
Ashimov A.A., Satbayev University
• “Macro Modeling of the Central Bank – Ideas for the Future”
Atanu Rakshit, Nazarbayev University
• “Evolution of monetary policy rules in transition economies”
Mukhamadiev B.M., Al-Farabi Kazakh National University
• “In which direction is the Kazakhstani tenge moving? Some exchange rate policy issues in Kazakhstan and Central Asia”
Yunbei Kim, Nazarbayev University
• “Exchange rate, base rate and repayment of loans in Kazakhstan”
Moldasheva G., KIMEP University
• “Assessment of the general macroeconomic equilibrium model for export-oriented economies (on the example of Kazakhstan and Russia)”
Kunasheva D.B., Baeva Yu.V., Kazakhstan Branch of Lomonosov Moscow State University
• “Development of innovative technology of the management sector of the national economy”
Baizakov S.B., The Institute of Economic Research
